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Let’s call it a comeback
Making a Comeback – Foreclosure Activity
Let’s call it a comeback. Foreclosure filings are rebounding in South Florida. FEMA halted foreclosure actions after Hurricane Irma and lenders appear to be firing up the repo machine again. Below is a snapshot of the South Florida monthly foreclosure filings. The sharp decline in September is after the hurricane. It looks like filings in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach have bottomed out and are prepared to rebound strongly in 2018.
A Comeback in Average Sale Prices
As far as pricing goes, it’s probably a good time for banks to dispose of assets. Prices in South Florida gained some strength into year-end. The average sale price of a house was $485,637 and the average sale price of a condo was $281,838 in the month of December.
No Comeback in Existing Residential Inventory (yet)
Inventory for existing condos (excluding new construction) and homes remains fairly low. Although many properties are removed from the market during the holidays, here are the existing South Florida inventory numbers for December:
- Single-family homes – 17,558, down from 18,313 in November
- Condo properties- 28,931, down from 29,748 in November
Transaction Volume
Deal volume ticked-up into the end of 2017. Below is a snapshot of South Florida residential transaction volume from 2012 until the end of 2017 and you will see that 2015 was the largest year for deal volume in the cycle:
| Annual | Monthly Average | |
| 2012 | 86,001 | 7,167 |
| 2013 | 91,180 | 7,598 |
| 2014 | 91,239 | 7,603 |
| 2015 | 96,411 | 8,034 |
| 2016 | 90,974 | 7,581 |
| 2017 | 88,227 | 7,352 |
No Comeback in Wages
One of the key issues in housing after the latest bubble was blown by central backs is the lack of wage growth. Below is a chart from the St. Louis Fed showing median wage growth (or the lack of wage growth). Let me know if anyone sees a problem when they look at the chart. The fact remains that without constant bailouts, most wage earners cannot afford to pay their bills.
