Picking tops and bottoms in the real estate market can be difficult.  It’s down right tricky, but maybe we will spot a trend every now and then.  Today we will look at a few charts that should help us out.  Today’s chart tunes are brought to you by RUN DMC.

Here is a chart of the monthly sales volume across South Florida going back to 2012.  Obviously the sales in 2021 and 2022 stick out like a sore thumb. As far as picking a top, look no further than June of 2021.  There was a total of 12,208 closed sales across Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach.  That total included 6,746 condo transactions and 5,462 single-family home sales.  After that, the chart shows a series of lower highs.

We are only a few months into 2025, but you should be able to notice how transaction volume has slowed.  In February there were 4,725 residential sales, including 2,514 houses and 2,211 condos.  That total represents a 61% decline from the high set back in June of 2021.

Prior to the COVID craziness, there were 32,578 condos listed for sale across Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach.  We haven’t surpassed it yet, but in February there were 32,522 condos on the market.  By watching the drastic upswing in supply, we will certainly cruise right on past the prior high in the next month.  The number of single-family homes on the market continues to climb at a much slower pace.  There were 16,793 houses on the market in February, up 30% from February 2023.  Condo supply jumped 40% for the same period.

Here’s where it gets tricky:  When you look at the average sale prices for houses and condos, they really haven’t declined that much.  Why is that?  It could be that the ultra luxury segment of the market drags the average high each month.  Also, as inventory continues to climb, prices will be reduced.  This will start in the older condo properties first, then newer condos and the single-family market will be last to the party.  Keep in mind that a slower pace of sales will drag out the price discovery process.  If you bought a property during 2022, there’s a good chance you will have a loss (net of commissions and closing costs) if you sold today.  If you look back at some of our market outlook  posts during the COVID craziness, we said that eventually the price gains from that period would be erased.  If we are at 2022 prices now, how long will it take to roll back the remainder of price gains?

Mortgage rates dropping under 7% may spur some activity.  That’s a call that we definitely got wrong.  We figured that they were headed higher, but for now it looks like they are trending lower.

Foreclosure filings are still very low.  This chart shows a very slight uptick during the month of February.

Allied Realty Group understands that all asset classes experience market turbulence and fluctuations in value.  Each segment of the real estate market will at some point be impacted by various economic conditions and cycles.  We provide a full range of real estate advisory services designed to help our clients navigate today’s complex and dynamic market and make well informed intelligent decisions. Clients rely on our advisory services to make buy-sell decisions, understand debt /equity markets and their impact on financing products, shape long-term portfolio strategies, evaluate development or redevelopment options and optimize investment returns.

We provide a wide range of advisory and consulting services to real estate investors, lenders, developers, owner-users and landlords. Our advisory services include:

• Asset analysis via comprehensive opinions of value & broker price opinions
• Property operations and maintenance analysis
• Research and analysis of the market and submarket
• Portfolio strategy and buy-sell strategy by property type
• Financing and/or refinancing feasibility analysis
• Troubled asset / REO management and disposition strategies
• Development and redevelopment feasibility studies

Allied Realty Group covers every major real estate product segment including industrial, office, retail, multi-family, vacant land and single-family housing as well. Our team will formulate and support custom tailored real estate solutions and recommendations with our systematic approach designed to:

• Analyze key economic  data and  current market trends
• Clearly identify your ultimate goals and objectives
• Develop strategies to stabilize and maximize yield on troubled assets
• Assess the market supply and demand dynamics according to property type
• Maximize the value of current and future investment opportunities

As an owner or prospective owner of real estate assets, you need to ask yourself the following:  Is it time to buy, sell, hold, or refinance? Regardless of any current market turbulence, Allied Realty Group will provide sound advice and help you formulate a long- term real estate investment plan.