Let’s take a quick tour of 2024 in the South Florida residential real estate market.  Nothing fancy, just a few charts to look at.  Hopefully we can shed some light of the current market and where we are headed.

Transaction volume

In 2024 there were 70,935 transactions in the residential real estate market across Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County, Florida.  This chart clearly illustrate that transaction volume has declined substantially from the highs during COVID.   In the month of December there were 2,525 condo sales and 2,811 single-family homes sold.  That was a slight uptick from November when there were 2,197 condo sales and 2,361 single-family homes sold.

How do the numbers look when we take an average on a monthly basis?  2024 looks a bit sluggish.  This next chart shows that 2024 had the lowest number of sales on average going back to 2012.

Average sale price

Overall, prices haven’t dropped much (yet).  Due to the strength in the ultra-luxury market, numbers still look pretty good.  The average selling price of a single-family home was $1,058, 316 in January and closed the year at $1,024,935.  As for condos, they started the year at $533,283 and ended 2024 at $546,554.  As long as the new construction condos on the high end keep selling, they may hide some of the carnage that will soon be hitting the older buildings.

Houses and condos on the market in South Florida

Here you will notice a tale of two real estate markets.  The number of single-family homes for sale in South Florida remains limited, but the condo market is another story.  The number of condos on the market jumped 52% from December of last year.  In December 2023 there were 18,956 condos on the market and last month there were 28,782.  The year ahead will reveal a lot about the condo market in South Florida.  As mentioned above, the ultra-luxury new condo projects may be o.k. while the older buildings on the lower end of the market take a beating on price.

As far as single-family homes are concerned, there were 11,873 properties on the market in December 2023 and 15,039 last month.  That’s a 27% increase year over year, basically half the jump in the condo inventory.

Mortgage Rates

Did your real estate agent tell you to just “date the rate” over the last few years with hopes of refinancing when rates drop?  Don’t expect mortgage rates to decline anytime soon.  As long as inflation remains stubborn, 30-year mortgage rates will remain in the 7% range and possibly spend some time in the 8% range during the coming year.

Foreclosures

Don’t expect too many foreclosures to hit the market down here anytime soon.  The number of filings may climb in 2025, but it takes forever for the cases to navigate through the court system.  Also, the property owners with enough money just pay a foreclosure defense attorney to keep them in the house for years.  That way they can remain in the property (or collect rent on it if it’s an investment property), pay for their leased Bentley and keep up appearances at the yacht club / country club.  Whether it’s PPP grift or any other scam, South Floridians have it covered!

This real estate market outlook covers residential real estate activity in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County, Florida.  Here are just a few of the cities in each of these three markets:

• Miami-Dade – Aventura, Coral Gables, Miami Beach, Hialeah, Sunny Isles Beach, North Miami, Homestead, Doral, Miami Lakes, Downtown Miami, Brickell and Key Biscayne.

• Broward – Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach, Deerfield Beach, Hollywood, Hallandale, Weston, Parkland, Wilton Manors, Oakland Park, Plantation, Cooper City, Davie, Coral Springs, Sea Ranch Lakes, Lauderdale by the Sea and Lighthouse Point.

• Palm Beach – Delray Beach, Highland Beach, Jupiter, Palm Beach Island, Boynton Beach, Boca Raton, Highland Beach, Palm Beach Gardens, West Palm Beach, Wellington and Lake Worth.