When it comes to a price correction in South Florida real estate, the waiting is the hardest part.  When will real estate prices in South Florida begin to decline?   After a meteoric rise over the past several years, it looks like this summer could finally mark the beginning of a correction in prices.  Why is that?

• Mortgage rates will remain elevated
• Insurance costs are spiraling out of control
• Inventory of houses and especially condos will build

The normalization of interest rates took forever.  Easy money for over a decade created a nasty bubble in the housing market and problematic inflation will probably keep rates higher for longer.

How about that rise in condo inventory across Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach.  In April there were 24,507 condos listed for sale in the tri-county area.  That brings us back to January 2021 levels of active inventory.  We expect inventory in the condo market to continue to build throughout the summer.  After that comes the price drops.

By looking at the chart of transaction volume, there was a decent spike in deals during the months of March and April.  That should taper off through the summer months.

How about foreclosure activity?  The chart above shows a base building in the monthly foreclosure filing numbers.  We expect that number to continue trending higher for the balance of 2024.  As distress climbs and inventory builds, prices will drop.  The waiting is he hardest part.

This real estate market outlook covers real estate activity in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County, Florida.  Here are just a few of the cities in each of these three markets:

• Miami-Dade – Aventura, Coral Gables, Miami Beach, Hialeah, Sunny Isles Beach, North Miami, Homestead, Doral, Miami Lakes, Downtown Miami, Brickell and Key Biscayne.

• Broward – Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach, Deerfield Beach, Hollywood, Hallandale, Weston, Parkland, Wilton Manors, Oakland Park, Plantation, Cooper City, Davie, Coral Springs, Sea Ranch Lakes, Lauderdale by the Sea and Lighthouse Point.

• Palm Beach – Delray Beach, Highland Beach, Jupiter, Palm Beach Island, Boynton Beach, Boca Raton, Highland Beach, Palm Beach Gardens, West Palm Beach, Wellington and Lake Worth.