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Knocking on the door

The 10-year bond is knocking on the door to 3% again.   We made a run back in February and it failed. Why is this important?  Because mortgage rates closely track the 10-year bond and if rates rise, prices drop.  It’s just basic math and most people forget that rates have been so low for so long.  Here is a chart that shows rates as of last Thursday, April 19, 2018.  Since then, the 10-year bond yield has climbed higher.  If we see a close over 3.03%, you will see additional pressure on housing prices as rates continue to climb.

Knocking on the door

Have rates already slowed sales volume?

Is it possible that higher rates have already impacted residential sales volume?  This chart speaks volumes, declining ones!

Knocking on lower deal volume

Knocking on the door to a residential peak in sales?

After a few months of lower sales volume, prices will usually stall, then move lower.  By looking at the chart of average sale prices, we may be at the the stalling point right now.  This chart just shows prices through March, when the average sale price of a house declined slightly to $520,253 and condo prices dipped to $292,980.

Knocking on a peak in prices

Foreclosures are roaring back bigly!

Who would have thought that South Florida would still be dealing with foreclosure numbers of this magnitude nearly ten years after the financial crisis?  Take a look at this next chart and it looks like 2018 is going to be a busy year for mortgage foreclosure filings.  Things are heating up and gaining serious momentum after the last halt that took place after Hurricane Irma.  The sharp decline in September 2017 filings was due too the FEMA halt, so we should revisit the levels of filings we reached last summer.  Earlier this month we warned about the strong comeback in filings in this post South Florida Foreclosure filings

Mortggage forelcosures up bigly!

Remember that all real estate markets are unique.  For a quick look at the nationwide statistics for the month of March, here is a good link:  March existing home sales article