Allied Realty Group Blog

Are recent sales declines in South Florida storm related or something more?

South Florida residential sales have been on the decline in the past few months, so it may be difficult to blame the storms.   Although transaction volume declined sharply in September, it appears that cracks in the market started in July.  One month does not make a trend, but three months may be an indicator of market direction.

Closed Sales of Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach houses

There has been a significant decline in transaction volume since the month of June.  The monthly totals for single-family home sales in South Florida were as follows:

  • June – 4,893
  • July – 4,119
  • August – 4,147
  • September – 2,735 (storm related)

Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach houses

Closed Sales of Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach condos

Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach condo sales

When we look at the monthly totals for closed condo transactions in South Florida, it looks like deal volume started to slow in June, just a month earlier than single-family home sales.  The condo transaction totals for the area were as follows:

  • May – 4,450
  • June – 4,155
  • July – 3,553
  • August – 3,610
  • September – 2,738 (storm related)

Sale Prices in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach houses

The average sale price of single-family homes have remained somewhat stable in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, but it appears that Palm Beach prices are sliding.  Here are the average sale prices for September:

  • Miami-Dade – $477,150
  • Broward – $433,148
  • Palm Beach – $429,916

Sale prices in Miami, Fort Lauderdale Palm beach houses

Sale Prices in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach condos

For now it looks like condo prices are remaining stable in Broward and Miami-Dade, while they appear to be slipping for the past few months in Palm Beach.  Obviously the new supply that will continue to flood the market will add some pricing pressure, but for now the tri-county area hasn’t declined much.  The average selling price by County in September were:

  • Miami-Dade – $379.024
  • Broward – $200,294
  • Palm Beach – $248,064

Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Palm beach condo sales

As we move into the fourth quarter of 2017 we will closely monitor real estate activity in South Florida.  If you want to blame storms for sales declines, September is the only month where closings may have been impacted.  Therefore, October should receive some of the deals that were scheduled to close during the month of September.  After that, it will be important to watch the volume of closed sales for the remainder of the year.  It usually takes a few months of slower transaction volume for prices to soften.  If that happens, we may begin the long-awaited market correction that is inevitable.

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Changes in attitudes around the lower latitudes

Jimmy Buffet had a great song entitled “Changes in latitudes, changes in attitudes” and that is the theme of our post today.  Market sentiment often shifts several months (or longer) prior to any price correction and most individuals may not see the shift until long after a cycle turns.  During the last housing crisis, most real estate professionals didn’t want to acknowledge the downturn until we were 2-3 years into it.  Since that time stocks, bonds, collectibles and real estate have experienced a bull run thanks to the invisible hand of the Fed.  After eight years of crisis level interest rates and the reflation of all asset classes, will the cycle finally turn?  Let’s run through some charts and data and maybe we will see where this market is headed.

Changes in Average Sale Prices – South Florida Real Estate

Changes in House and condo prices in South Florida

Prices appear to be trending lower in the South Florida single-family and condo markets.  Don’t tell the perma-bull real estate agents who are constantly touting residential properties as an “investment”, but this cycle may finally be turning.  The chart illustrates the 5% price decline in single-family homes and 10% decline in condo prices from May through August.

Changes in Foreclosure Filings

Changes in Foreclosure trends in South Florida

Everyone has been ignoring this issue for the past several years.  Look at the dotted blue trend line in the above chart.  If you just look at the whopping 34% jump in new foreclosure filings from July to August, that is disturbing.  One month doesn’t make a trend, and this chart shows how the pace of new foreclosure filings in South Florida has been climbing steadily over the past few years.  The next chart shows how Miami-Dade County is getting active again and new filings are reaching levels that haven’t been seen in years.

Changes in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach foreclosures

Distressed Sales compared to new foreclosure filings

Changes in distressed property sales in South Florida

The chart above is self-explanatory.  Distressed sales have declined while the pace of new foreclosure filings continues to climb.  This trend should continue as lenders now have a green light to pursue delinquent borrowers after years of litigation.

Changes in transaction volume

Transaction volume year over year in South Florida has actually increased.  In 2016 the monthly average was 7,581 closings per month and so far in 2017 the monthly average is up 3% to 7,799 closings per month when you combine the single-family and condo deals.  There has been some seasonal volatility and it will take a few more months to determine whether a slower sales pace will be the new normal.

South Florida real estate transactions

Changes in rates

Rates have been favorable for real estate for obvious reasons.  After the Fed dropped rates to crisis lows in 2009, they have had a difficult time climbing higher.  If rates begin to riseat the same time the real estate market cools, that could present some serious challenges.  The Fed will start to shrink their $4.5 trillion balance sheet of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities next month.  That will be at a gradual pace, but private investors may demand higher yields in the mortgage space and that will prove more costly for borrowers.

Mortgage rates and the housing bubble

There are a number of factors at work in the South Florida real estate market.  If you plan to buy or sell real estate in Fort Lauderdale, Miami, or Palm Beach you should be aware of the factors that will steer this market through the remainder of 2017 and next year.  There may not be a full correction or “crash” in real estate prices, it may be challenging for prices to remain at current levels for much longer.

Here are a few summary points:

  • Residential real estate prices will continue to be under pressure in South Florida
  • Foreclosure activity will remain elevated
  • Distressed properties will not reach the market for awhile due to the lengthy legal process
  • Transaction volume will begin to decline as speculators / investors lose their appetite for South Florida properties
  • Any incremental rate increases will put additional pressure on the market
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Climbing the wall of worry

Party on!  It looks like prices keep climbing in the South Florida residential real estate market, at least through the month of June.   Historically that month has been strong for sales volume and prices, so once we get into the next few months, we should have a better indication if this freight train plans to slow down.

Climbing sale prices

South Florida climbing house prices

During the month of June, the average sale price of a single-family home in South Florida was $493,648.  Although it is down slightly from the recent peak of $505,236 set back in February, this is still an impressive number.  As for condos, the average selling price in June was $282,117.  It appears that the condo sales have cooled already (see the next chart) and should continue to do so as we move through the remainder of 2017.

Residential transaction volume

Real estate sales in South Florida

During the month of June there were 9,048 residential transactions recorded in South Florida, which is a slight drop from 9,141 in May.  The condo market had 4,155 sales, representing a 7% decline month over month.  Single-family home sales volume increased 4% from 4,691 in May to 4,893 in June.  If you look at the April – June period for the past few years, it is usually a good one for sales volume.

Residential Inventory

South Florida houses and condos

As long as you exclude the massive new construction condo product overhang, residential inventory has been declining.   There were 18,439 houses and 29,134 condos listed for sale.  The decline in condo prices is now becoming clear and this trend should continue for awhile.  With the amount of new construction condos not in the MLS and the proposed projects in the pipeline, it could take years to absorb all of the product.

Climbing foreclosure filings

Miami, Fort Lauderdale and palm beach climbing foreclosure activity

Why isn’t this being discussed?  It seems as if everyone thinks that distressed properties are no longer an issue in South Florida, but we will continue to highlight the elevated level of new foreclosure filings in the tri-county area.  In 2016 the monthly average of new filings was 1,266 and so far in 2017 the monthly average has climbed 7% to a monthly average of 1,356.  As speculators are back in full-force and people continue to stretch their budgets to afford housing, the South Florida market will continue to wrestle with distressed properties.  It sure seems as if people have a very short memory!

Mortgage Rates – Not Climbing!

Mortgage rates

As long as rates remain low, the housing party will continue.  Low borrowing costs have fueled this latest bubble in the residential markets and we may not see normalization of rates anytime soon.  We have always stressed the correlation between low rates and higher asset prices, along with the danger of bubbly markets.  If and when rates climb we will see a direct impact on housing demand and prices, so until then, party on!

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Stall speed

Stall speed is the slowest speed a plane can fly to maintain level flight.  That sounds a lot like the state of our economy and the bond market is well aware.  After the November election we saw a noticeable jump in 10-year bond yields and mortgage rates, but halfway through 2017, they simply don’t believe the hype any longer.  The prospects for economic growth appear slim and the economy has stalled (or has simply remained stalled).   Ironically enough, the slight move upward in yields over the last few weeks was a reflex to European bond yields increasing and certainly not a result of economic growth prospects.

Mortgage rates and bond yields

Will sales prices finally stall?

For now, it looks like the average sale prices in the Fort Lauderdale area have remained elevated.  During the month of May, the average sale price of a single-family home was at $408,639 and the average sale price of a condo was $211,018.  Mortgage rates have remained at crisis levels for over eight years and have continued to fuel higher prices.  The summer months will show if the pace of sales and prices will slow.

real estate prices in Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Residential Inventory

Residential inventory around the Greater Fort Lauderdale looks good for sellers.  There were a total of 13,909 houses and condos listed for sale throughout Broward County in the month of May.  Low rates have allowed buyers to pile on plenty of debt and the fear of missing out (FOMO) is still in full-effect.

Fort lauderdale houses and condos for sale

Foreclosure filings – not at stall speed

For some reason nobody cares to report about all of the new foreclosure filings in the Fort Lauderdale area.  You will notice from the next chart that they have been climbing in 2017 and remain at high levels that we haven’t seen in years.  This is all happening during the eighth year of the “economic recovery” nonetheless!  The condo property filings (in red) have been climbing steadily month after month throughout 2017.  Here is a quick snapshot of the past three years of residential mortgage foreclosure filings in Broward County, Florida:

  • 2015 monthly average was  280
  • 2016 monthly average rose 50% to 420
  • 2017 monthly average has climbed another 41% to 593

Fort Lauderdale mortgage foreclosure filings

Our next chart is a snapshot of the tri-county area including Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm beach County Florida.  Through the month of June there have been 8,138 new mortgage foreclosure filings in the area.

Foreclosures in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Palm beach

At some point the lack of growth in the economy will come back to haunt the South Florida real estate market.  The pace of mortgage defaults remains elevated and new debt will magnify the problem.   The fact that the ten year bond yield cannot reach 3% just shows that markets don’t believe we will see any economic growth in the near term.  In addition, the Fed currently holds nearly 25% of all the first mortgage loans in the country with a total of $2.5 trillion and they keep talking about winding-down their balance sheet.  What will happen to the mortgage market if it relies on other participants to buy all of these loans?  Anemic growth and record debt will not allow us to maintain stall speed forever.


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Plotting the next move

When will it be time to begin plotting your next move?  It sure seems like real estate markets have been defying all logic and the charts have showed some resilience so far throughout 2017.  At some point the rally across all asset classes will run out of steam, whether we see it first in stocks, bonds or real estate will be the question.

Plotting average sale prices in South Florida

Plotting South Florida real estate prices

After seeing a multi-year high price of $505,236 during the month of February, it appears that single-family home prices may be taking a breather in South Florida.  During the month of May, prices slipped 5% from the February highs to $480,133.  The question is whether they continue the slide over the summer or make an attempt at another high.  At first glance, we may have already seen the cycle peak in single-family home prices in this market.  As for the average selling price of condos, they appear to have made their 2017 high during the month of March at $286,474 and dipped slightly (4%) to $280,096 in May.  It is noteworthy that condo prices have failed to surpass the $300,000 mark and repeatedly meet resistance at that level.  If condo prices are failing to reach new highs with all of this accommodation, there is a good chance their next move is downward.

Plotting the Peaks and Valleys in Transaction Volume

As for transaction volume, South Florida has seen some peaks and valleys.  January saw a seasonal drop to 5,794 residential transactions, but deal volume has rebounded nicely to 9,141 closed transactions in May.  The month of June has been strong for the past few years, so we shall see if we reach the previous highs next month.  A failure to reach previous highs in deal volume will most-likely lead to a downtrend throughout the summer and lower prices across the board.

Plotting Real estate transactions in South Florida

Residential Inventory

As long as we don’t include the massive shadow inventory of new construction condos, the existing inventory of available properties looks o.k..  As of May, there were 18,937 houses and 29,922 condo / townhouse properties listed for sale in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County Florida.  If you compare these numbers to 2011 it seems like the current levels remain healthy for now.  Remember that the far left of this chart shows when the major banks removed all of their foreclosure inventory from the market because of pending litigation.  Believe it or not, many of those properties are still lingering in default and may return to the market.

Plotting inventory South Florida houses and condos for sale

We have discussed at length how keeping interest rates at crisis level lows for so long will eventually damage a market.  A low cost of borrowing encourages buyers to pile on debt and overpay for assets.  Since there is an inverse relationship between interest rates and asset prices, the question remains of who will be the bag holders when rates eventually climb and asset prices drop?   We all know how that story ends, and apparently repeats itself.  Stay tuned.


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Pops & drops

Real estate data has a tendency to be seasonal and from the looks of this latest batch, we are right on track again in South Florida.  Today we will take a look at the “pop” in transaction volume last month, along with price trends, foreclosure filings and distressed sales.

A seasonal “pop” in deal volume

It’s a good think that transaction volume increased during the month of March, otherwise it would have signaled a warning moving forward through the spring.  If you look at the previous years in the chart below, you will notice the same pattern during March and April of each year.  You will want to see one more month of strength in deal volume before it tapers off for the summer months.  The first chart breaks out the condo and single family home sales and the second chart is combined.

Seasonal pop in South Florida real estate sales

Seasonal pops and drops south florida real estate

A slight drop in single family home prices (not seasonal)

This isn’t much to worry about right now, after several years of an upward trend.  However, if the April numbers are soft it could be the start of a downward trend in single-family home prices across South Florida.  The average sale price of a house in South Florida declined by 5% month over month from $505,236 in February to $477,764 in March.  Meanwhile, the average sale price of a condo climbed 6% from $270,277 in February to $286,474 in March.  Always keep in mind that the average sale price tends to be more volatile than the median, and one month in either direction does not signify the start of a new trend.  We do anticipate softening in the condo market over the summer months and it will be interesting to see if house prices follow condos South.  Mortgage rates have declined once again, so that may provide price support until rates resume their uptrend.  Be careful not to cheer low rates for much longer, because they fortell much larger problems in the economy.

South florida house and condo prices

Foreclosure activity

New foreclosure filings continue to climb throughout South Florida. During the month of march there were 1,495 new foreclosure filings in the condo and single-family home segments in South Florida.  This is a jump of 18% month over month.  So far in 2017, the monthly average of new filings is 1,304.  The monthly average in 2016 was 1,262 and it was only 796 in 2015.  Do you see a pattern here?  Just look at the chart.

Foreclosures in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach

Distressed property sales

Finally, here is a look at the pace of short sale and foreclosure transactions in comparison to the new foreclosure filings.  Obviously the properties that are just now receiving foreclosure notices have awile before ever hitting the market, but this chart and the one above really add some perspective to the “recovery” in the South Florida housing market.

Foreclosure sales and short sales in South Florida real estate

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Hanging around

The Counting Crows had a cool song years ago titled “hanging around”.  It had a great beat and reminds me of a few market conditions lately.  Today we will highlight a couple of our charts that may be worth monitoring and will help you determine if the real estate market recovery is for real.

Rates are hanging around

The fact that the 10-year bond rate failed to rally over the 2.63% mark is disturbing.  A close over that level would have sent the 10-year yield closer to 3.00% and mortgage rates would have been much higher.  Rather than cheer the fact that rates are still low, people should be wondering why.  Our guess is that the market no longer believes in the post-election pro-growth trade.  If you want to know which way the economy is headed, look no further than the bond market.  Right now it does not fortell a booming economy and if rates continue to drop we will have some serious issues across all asset classes.

mortgage rates

Foreclosures keep hanging around

Hey wait, I though we were done with these things!  Why do they keep coming back like a boomerang?  This is what happens when you kick the can down the road and don’t fix a problem.  At the end of 2016 we discussed how the decison in the Bartram case in the Florida Supreme Court would clear the way for lenders to start filing their foreclosure cases again. Until there was a decision in that case the banks were worried that their cases would be challenged and/or dismissed on various technicalities.  Yes, plenty of these properties have bounced in and out of foreclosure since 2008, but the lenders are finally on firm ground to file again.  Case filings in Broward County are escalating quickly and it is our guess that Miami-Dade and Palm Beach will follow.

To add some perspective, here are some monthly filing averages for houses and condos in the tri-county area:

  • 2015 averaged 796 monthly filings
  • 2016 averaged 1,266 monthly filings
  • 2017 so far is averaging 1,300 monthly filings

South Florida #Foreclosures

This next chart shows the trend of total filings.  Look at how there were so few back in 2015!

Miami, Fort lauderdale Palm Beach #foreclosures

This chart of Broward County is no bueno!  We haven’t seen this many filings in years.

#Foreclosures in Fort lauderdale

Transaction volume is hanging around the lows

How about transaction volume?  This chart goes through February, so don’t panic just yet.  If you look at the chart, you will notice a dip in transaction volume each year around January and February.  We have stated previously that the South Florida residential market peaked in the spring of 2016.  Typically prices will lag transaction volume and if there isn’t a significant uptick in sales during the second quarter, you will continue to see downward market pressure followed by another leg down in prices.

South florida real estate deal volume

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What to watch in 2017

There are a few areas to watch as we begin 2017 and we will highlight them with new charts.  After eight years of artificially suppressed interest rates, all asset classes could enter a new era of volatility.  Here are a some data points worth keeping an eye on as we move through the year:

Watch new foreclosure filings

Major lenders took yet another break from filing foreclosures in the last few years until a recent decision in Florida Supreme Court.  In a nutshell, they will now be able to refile cases outside the 5-year statute of limitations.  There are still tens of thousands of cases and several hundred million dollars in assets held in limbo up to this point.  People forget that many of the unresolved cases date back to 2008. Look for new filings to gain momentum as we move through 2017.  As for the average number of residential filings in South Florida over the past few years:

  • The 2015 monthly average was 796
  • In 2016, the monthly average climbed 59% to 1,266

Watch South Florida foreclosure filings


Watch bond yelds and mortgage rates

Bond yields rallied after the election, but tapered-off as 2016 came to and end as investment portfolios needed to be re-balanced.  After reaching close to 2.60% in mid-December, this week the 10-year bond yield closed around 2.42%.  It is likely that bond yields will slide in the near-term, but will resume their climb as we progress through the year.  A few key levels to watch on the upside are as follows:

  • A close over 2.62% should send the 10-year bond yield higher to the 3.00% level
  • If the 10-year bond yield rallies and closes over 3.00% (3.03% to be specific), it is highly likely to rally much further, with mortgage rates climbing over 5.00%.  These levels are still very low by historical standards, but could be problematic for real estate markets.

Watch mortgage rates and bond yields

Transaction volume

Deal volume has dropped, but we will have to watch the first few months of 2017 to see if this translates to something more than a seasonal slowdown.   You will notice from the chart below that transaction volume declined toward the end of the past few years, reaching lows in January.  Typically extended periods of lower transaction volume are followed by price declines, so we will have to look toward the second quarter of 2017 to see if this continues into the spring.

  • In 2015, the average monthly transaction volume was 8,034
  • Through November of 2016, monthly deal volume has declined 5% to 7,602

South Florida real estate sales

Inventory levels

The residential inventory reached a low point back in may of 2013 with 35,123 houses and condos listed for sale.  Since that point, inventory has climbed 39% to 48,822 in November.  As you will notice from the next chart, houses are at a reasonable level at 19,355.  Keep an eye on condo inventory, as it reached 29,487 units without the shadow inventory of new construction projects.

South Florida real estate inventory

Sale prices

The average selling price of condos actually rose slightly to 268,753 in November, as house prices dropped $409,216.  Obviously the above charts of inventory, transaction volume and mortgage rates will determine where prices go in 2017.  The foreclosure filings will have a lesser impact, because the timeline of filings to sale date are still ridiculously long in judicial states like Florida.

Watch eal estate prices in South Florida


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Let’s make real estate markets fun again!

Let’s face it, real estate markets have been boring since the financial crisis.  Once the government intervened by dropping rates to crisis levels and bailing out banks and distressed borrowers, the markets have been anything but normal.  The goal of the government stimulus was to reflate asset prices and make people think this was a true recovery.  Not only has this not been a real recovery,  but people have forgotten what “normal” rates look like and what would happen if they ever moved higher. For the first time in years, anyone buying or selling property may actually have to do some homework.  Mortgage rates are beginning to normalize on their own and real estate markets may actually be fun again!

Fun with rates

After luring everyone back into the real estate market with these artificially low rates, we have recently seen an unprecedented rise in bond yields.  These increases will put the brakes on the housing market and deflate the existing bubble.  Plenty of speculators rushed into the markets and will once again be stuck with properties they thought would be quick flips.  Does this sound familiar? Look at the far right side of this chart of bond yields and mortgage rates.  We haven’t seen the 10-year bond (where it is today) at 2.45 since October of 2014.  We will see if it closes there today and if it does, it will most likely continue the trek upward.   The real fun begins after the 10-year bond yield climbs over 3% and mortgage rates move closer to 5%.

fun with bond yields and mortgage rates

Sales by transaction type – single family home market

We focus on the closed sales because they are a good leading indicator for where prices are heading.  If sales volume declines for several months in a row, prices will typically follow them down.  here is a snapshot of the Greater Fort Lauderdale residential market for single-family homes.  Traditional (arm’s length) transactions are usually the best indicator and they have dropped 30% since June, when we believe the residential market peaked in South Florida.  Keep in mind that these numbers are just through October, before bond yields and mortgage rates made their dramatic jump.

house sales in fort lauderdale

Sales by transaction type – condo market

Now let’s take a look at condo sales and you will notice a similar pattern.  Traditional condo sales declined 22% since the month of June.

condo property sales fort lauderdale

Average sale prices

Prices of houses and condos haven’t seen the impact of higher borrowing costs yet and therefore have not dropped.  Our prediction is the the November sales numbers out later this month will start to really show some cracks in the market.  Condo prices started to slip a few months ago, but the single-family homes held up through October.  November, December and 2017 should bring an end to their Fed-induced price rally.

sale prices houses and condos fort lauderdale

Bonus chart – New foreclosures & distressed sales

We have included a bonus chart today, because most people think that foreclosures will no longer impact the South Florida market.  Think again.  After years of kicking the can down the road, some of the foreclosures from 2008 will eventually get to the market.  This final chart shows that although distressed sales have been declining, new foreclosure filings have been creeping higher.  This trend is worth watching as we move into 2017.

short sales foreclosures fort lauderdale

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Are property prices poised to head South this winter?

Property prices around the country have had quite the rally since the Fed decided to drop interest rates to stimulate the economy back in 2009.  After seven years of asset price reflation aka “the recovery”, there are a variety of factors that may send property prices downward.  Today we will look at the decline in sales volume, which is usually means that price drops are not far behind.

Prices of houses and condo properties

During the month of October, the average house price in the South Florida market dropped slightly to $430,856.  That represents a 6% decline from June, which is the point where we believe this market peaked in sales price and volume.  As for condos, the average price has already declined to 237,889 in October which represents a drop of 10% since June.  Also worth noting is that the average sale price of condo properties has declined for six months in a row.

Sales prices of South Florida houses and condos

House transactions by type

Our next chart has a breakdown of house sales by transaction type.  There were a total of 3,552 closed sales in October, which is a noticeable drop from the 4,923 deals that closed in June.  What is troubling about this chart is the sharp decline in traditonal (arm’s length) transactions.  These sales are usually what will keep prices up, while distressed sales drag the averages down. Here are the numbers by transaction type:

  • 3,132 traditional sales in October, a decline of 27% since June
  • 295 foreclosure sales in October, a decline of 37% since June
  • 125 short sales in October, a decline of 25% since June

Short sales foreclosures in houses

Condo transactions by type

There were 3,225 condo sales that closed during the month of October, down from 4,180 in June.  That is a 23% drop in deal volume and this is just listed condo properties and does not include the thousands of pre-construction condos that are available and new ones under construction and ready to flood the market.  Once again, notice that large drop in traditional sales. Here is a breakdown of the closed sales by transaction type:

  • 2,882 traditional sales in October, a decline of 22% since June
  • 292 foreclosure sales in October, a decline of 32% since June
  • 51 short sales in October, a decline of 32% since June

condo short sales foreclosures south florida

Total sales volume for the area

Here is a snapshot of the total sales volume for Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County Florida.  The reason we believe this is a set up for price declines is that this chart does not include November where rates started to climb substantially.   If deal volume was dropping before rates climbed, what will happen if rates normalize?  Existing inventory will have longer days on market and will be followed by price declines.

Houses and condo sales in South Florida

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