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Have real estate prices peaked for the cycle?

real estate prices peaked

Have real estate prices peaked in South Florida?  It looks like April could have been the top for this cycle and single-family home prices dropped in May for the first time in awhile. The average sale price of a single family home in South Florida declined from $943,299 in April to $892,296 in May. The average sale price of a condo in South Florida actually rose from $476,871 in April to $488,283 in May. The lack of inventory of single family homes in the tri-county area has driven more buyers to the condo market, therefore prices in that segment have been rising.

real estate inventory miami fort laudderdale palm beach

Inventory

For the first time in over a year, the inventory of houses listed for sale actually climbed from April to May. During the month of may there were 8, 083 houses on the market, up from 7, 749 houses for sale in April. This is a good sign and hopefully we’ll start a trend in the right direction.  At least for now, it looks like inventory has bottomed.  Condo inventory during the month of May dropped slightly to 16,687 units listed for sale in South Florida. That inventory is down from 18,173 during the month of April.

real estate sales volume

Deal volume

The number of houses and condo properties being sold declined during the month of may. There were six, 134 houses sold in May, down from 6,617 during the month of April. There were four, 884 condo properties sold in May, down from 5,355 condo sold in April. The decline in sales volume in the housing market is partially attributed to lack of inventory, especially in the single-family home segment.  The other reason why the market is finally slowing is that prices are completely insane!  Here is a look at the annual transaction volume going back to 2012:

Have real estate prices peaked?

Single-family homes in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach

Have real estate prices peaked?

You will notice from the chart above that all three counties saw the average sale price of houses roll over in May.  Here is a breakdown:

  • Miami-Dade – $1,043,932 in May, down 6% from $1,112,985 in April
  • Broward – $660, 338 in May, down 4% from $689,592 in April
  • Palm Beach – $983,654 in May, down 5% from $1,035,392 in April

Condo market in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach

Condo prices across Miami, Fort lauderdale and Palm beach

Condo prices were a mixed-bag across South Florida last month.  Here is the breakdown of the average sale prices:

  • Miami-Dade – $676,675 in May, down 3% from $697,114 in April
  • Broward – $296,156 in May, up 3% from $287,920 in April
  • Palm Beach – $481,771 in May, up 13% from $425,069 in April

Mortgage rates

There is no doubt that low mortgage rates have helped fuel this housing market’s climb to new highs.  The line in the sand for the 30-year mortgage to negatively impact housing prices used to be around 5%.  That bar has been lowered to about 4% since rates have been so low for so long.  Until rates get close to that, they shouldn’t be much of a factor.  We recently had a post on the expiration of the mortgage foreclosure moratorium at the end of June and how it may impact local real estate markets.  If South Florida gets hit with a flood of distressed properties again, we all know who will be there to scoop them up in bulk!

Mortgage rates have real estate prices peaked?

This market outlook covers real estate activity in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County, Florida.  Here are just a few of the cities in each of these three markets:

  • Miami-Dade – Aventura, Coral Gables, Miami Beach, Hialeah, Sunny Isles Beach, North Miami, Homestead, Doral, Miami Lakes, Downtown Miami, Brickell and Key Biscayne.
  • Broward – Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach, Deerfield Beach, Hollywood, Hallandale, Weston, Parkland, Wilton Manors, Oakland Park, Plantation, Cooper City, Davie and Lighthouse Point.
  • Palm Beach – Delray Beach, Highland Beach, Jupiter, Palm Beach Island, Boynton Beach, Boca Raton, Highland Beach, Palm Beach Gardens, West Palm Beach, Wellington and Lake Worth.